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Chris Christie

Carville’s remarks at Saint Leo are provocative, snappy

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Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton is almost certain to be the Democratic nominee for president in 2016, according to political strategist James Carville.

Her chances of winning are “no worse than 50-50,” said Carville who was keynote speaker on the opening day of the sixth annual International Business Conference at Saint Leo University. This year’s conference theme was “Best Practices in Global Organizations.”

James Carville talks about the presidential contenders for 2016. (Fred Bellet/Photo)
James Carville talks about the presidential contenders for 2016.
(Fred Bellet/Photo)

Before an audience of about 200 people, Carville entertained with funny anecdotes and blunt remarks on the dysfunctions of national politics.

The ‘ragin Cajun,” as he is sometimes called, was the Democratic strategist who led Bill Clinton’s successful presidential campaign in 1992, popularizing the slogan – “It’s the economy, stupid.” Clinton defeated incumbent President George H.W. Bush who, months before the election and in the aftermath of the first Gulf War, enjoyed more than 91 percent popularity in polls.

“I think (Hillary) has a good chance,” he said. “But running for president is enormously difficult.”

She will have to show how she is “substantively and stylistically” different from President Obama. “Whatever you may think of Obama, people are kind of looking for something different. They always are,” Carville said.

And the Republican candidate will be?

“I give (Chris) Christie no chance,” he said. “I give Jeb (Bush) less of a chance than most handicappers…and Ted Cruz a little more of a chance.”

Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney recently backed away from a third presidential run. But Romney is waiting and watching, Carville said.

“I think Mitt is doing his knitting on the sideline. If anybody is looking for Jeb Bush to lose in New Hampshire, he is.”

Carville tagged Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker as a must-win candidate in Iowa, or he will be out of the race. But like Romney, he also is counting on a Bush loss in New Hampshire’s primary.

Carville was a counterpoint to conservative pundit Tucker Carlson, who was last year’s keynote speaker at the business conference.

“It’s great for students,” said Frank Orlando, political science instructor at the university. “I want kids to pay attention to different issues. It’s important to know them.”

Emily Mincey, 21, a junior majoring in history, is focused on a career as a political strategist.

“Politics is where I want to go,” she said. “I’ve always wanted to know what was going on. I want to look for candidates who are smart. We can’t function without good politicians.”

Mincey said she doesn’t agree with Carville on every issue, but he is an example of how to be successful in politics.

Dade City resident Lex Smith also doesn’t always agree with Carville. But he said, “I always respect his opinions. I always enjoy hearing what he has to say.”

Carville’s remarks were provocative and snappy.

The country is divided, he said, with Democrats clustered in cities and Republicans in rural communities. A check of the election map in Pennsylvania in 2012 is a stark picture of the political landscape, he said.

President Obama carried the state by 5 percent of the total vote. But within 18 Congressional districts, he carried only five. It is an example of why Democrats are better positioned to win presidential elections and Republicans Congressional elections.

“Because of clusters, we don’t interact in the way we used to do,” Carville said. “Everyone is comfortable with their own coalition.”

Florida will be ground zero for Republicans in the presidential election because the state has 29 of the 270 electoral votes needed to capture the White House. “If you win Florida, you bust the numbers,” he said. “You cannot draw a map that Republicans can ever win the presidency without Florida.”

Democrats, however, can pursue strategies in swing states, such as New Hampshire, Virginia and Ohio, to create a path to win, he added.

Carville credited boxer Mike Tyson with inadvertently making the smartest comment ever about politics when Tyson said “Everybody’s got a plan until they get hit in the mouth.”

Anyone who runs for president will get hit in the mouth a lot, Carville said.

On Hillary Clinton, he said there is an understanding among Democrats that it is her turn to run for president. That is why Sen. Elizabeth Warren won’t get into the race, Carville said.

President Obama is a different kind of politician. “Most of them are in politics because they like people,” Carville said. “It’s kind of odd for someone to be in politics to not be as concerned with what people think about them as he does. It’s like being a banker and you don’t like money.”

In recent years Carville, 70, has taught political science at Tulane University in New Orleans and consulted for candidates in international elections. He is a friend of the Clintons, but said he has no plans to take on another national campaign. “I don’t want to be in centerfield with fly balls hitting me in the head,” he said.

Still, Carville said he went into politics knowing it was a contact sport.

“Didn’t nobody have more fun doing what he did than James Carville,” he said.

Published February 25, 2015

Clinton finds serious Florida challenge from Jeb

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If the 2016 presidential election were held today, Floridians would be ready to give the Sunshine State’s 29 electoral votes to former secretary of state Hillary Clinton.

That is, unless Jeb Bush decides to run.

A new survey by the Saint Leo University Polling Institute said that if both Clinton and the former governor end up representing their respective parties in the presidential race, voters in Florida, at least, would be split on whom to choose.

The poll, conducted between Nov. 25 and Dec. 7, gave 43 percent of support to Jeb Bush, while 42 percent picked Clinton.

No other early contenders did too well against the one-time First Lady. Clinton got 50 percent support against Kentucky senator Rand Paul, and 45 percent against New Jersey governor Chris Christie.

Clinton hit 51 percent against Texas senator Ted Cruz, and 48 percent against former Massachusetts governor and 2012 Republican nominee Mitt Romney.

Florida senator Marco Rubio held his ground a little better, however, earning 42 percent support among Floridians compared to 46 percent from Clinton.

Bush might be a favorite among Floridians, but at least one expert says it might be difficult for the two-term governor to gain momentum in the national spotlight.

“People perceive Jeb Bush differently in the rest of the country,” said Saint Leo University political instructor Frank Orlando, in a release. “Inside Florida, he’s Jeb. Outside of Florida, he’s George’s brother,” as in George W. Bush.

“Jeb Bush continues to struggle to separate his personality from the former president. However, inside the Sunshine State, he stands for himself. He’s his own man. He’s been the most popular figure in the state for a generation.”

Bush has a tremendous lead in Florida over other potential Republican nominees, carrying 34 percent support compared to 15 percent from Romney, according to the Saint Leo poll. Rubio had 10 percent support, while medical doctor Ben Carson is pulling 8 percent.

If their first choice decided not to run, Bush still lead among second picks with 18 percent, followed by Rubio at 15 percent and Romney at 13 percent.

Among Democrats, it might be impossible to topple Clinton. She has 63 percent support in Florida, with Vice President Joe Biden a distant second at 8 percent.

Biden, however, does lead among second choices with 25 percent, followed by Clinton with 13 percent and Massachusetts senator Elizabeth Warren at 11 percent.

Saint Leo polled 500 Florida adults, including 420 likely voters, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percent.

Don’t forget: Men get breast cancer, too

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Kriss Bowles was in Colorado attending a wedding with her husband, Brock, when he began complaining about pain in his spine as well as two of his ribs.

He felt a lump in his right breast, too.

Brock Bowles lost a three-year battle to breast cancer, which ultimately spread to other parts of his body. His wife, Kriss, has made it her personal mission to spread the word about the dangers of male breast cancer. (Courtesy of Kriss Bowles)
Brock Bowles lost a three-year battle to breast cancer, which ultimately spread to other parts of his body. His wife, Kriss, has made it her personal mission to spread the word about the dangers of male breast cancer.
(Courtesy of Kriss Bowles)

When they returned to their home in Lutz, Brock decided to see his doctor.

His main concern was trying to find out whether he had arthritis in his spine, but he also casually mentioned the lump in his breast, Kriss said.

The doctor ordered a mammogram to be taken the next day.

The screening led to a mastectomy, she added. The surgeon removed 13 lymph nodes, all of them cancerous.

Brock underwent chemotherapy, but despite the doctors’ efforts, the cancer spread to Brock’s lungs, hips, spine and brain before his ordeal with cancer ended his life on Sept. 16, 2004. His death certificate, however, highlighted breast cancer.

As the nation honors breast cancer awareness month in October with walks, runs, strolls, rallies and other events, Kriss — who now lives in Land O’ Lakes — wants people to remember that men die from breast cancer, too.

She said she felt compelled to get involved.

When her husband was battling cancer, “He’d lay in a recliner to sleep,” she said. “I would sit there and watch him sleep and wonder what was going through his mind. Because he knew he was dying.

“One day I said, ‘You know Lord, I know I’m not supposed to ask you why, but I’m asking ‘Why Brock?’‘”

Then she added, “I don’t expect an answer right now, but I hope someday you’ll give me an answer.”

After her husband’s death, Kriss said she began noticing that when people talked about breast cancer, they never mentioned men. So she’s made it her personal mission to spread the word about the need for men to be vigilant to protect themselves from breast cancer.

Besides being aware of symptoms, they need to avoid being too “macho” to take breast cancer seriously, Kriss said. It’s also important to eliminate any stigma: Men should not feel embarrassed about being afflicted with breast cancer because it is not a condition confined to women.

Kriss said her husband wasn’t embarrassed, but that’s not true for all men.

About 2,360 new cases of invasive breast cancer will be diagnosed among men, according to the 2014 statistics from the American Cancer Society. About 430 men will die from breast cancer during the year.

For men, the lifetime risk of getting breast cancer is about 1-in-1,000, according to Cancer Society estimates. The disease is about 100 times less common in men than women.

Because the incidence is so much lower, men are not routinely screened for breast cancer.  The smaller number of cases, however, does not diminish the importance of the issue, Kriss said.

Male breast cancer affects everyone who has a husband, a son, a father, a brother, a nephew, an uncle or a grandfather, she said.

To help spotlight the issue, Kriss waged a letter-writing campaign last year, reaching out to governors across the nation. She asked them to designate the third week in October as Male Breast Cancer Awareness Week.

So far, 20 states have done so, she said. One of those states is New Jersey.

That’s where the Bowles lived before they moved to Florida.

Gov. Chris Christie made the designation after Assemblyman Nelson Albano spoke about Brock during the opening session in Trenton, New Jersey.

Besides writing letters, Kriss also has stickers printed, sharing that “Men get breast cancer, too.” She also has had pink ribbon pins made that have the words, “Men, too,” written on them.

She gives those stickers and pins to organizers of breast cancer events, to help spread the word.

It has been nine years, since Brock died. Kriss still does what she can to spread the word, and she’s beginning to see some progress.

One day, she hopes, that this month that’s awash with pink ribbons and breast cancer prevention events will do more to acknowledge that, as her stickers say, “Men get breast cancer, too.”

Published October 15, 2014

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