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Hillary Rodham Clinton

As Florida goes, so goes the nation…again!

November 16, 2016 By Special to The Laker/Lutz News

This was an election like no other.

Once again, the Sunshine State was at the epicenter of it all.

For months on end, Florida was the center of attention in the national and international media, with its 29 Electoral College votes up for grabs — the largest number of any swing state.

Dr. Susan A. MacManus stands in front of a bus parked at the first 2016 presidential debate. The bus is touting CNN’s coverage of the 2016 race for president between Donald J. Trump and Hillary Rodham Clinton. (Courtesy of Susan A. MacManus)
Dr. Susan A. MacManus stands in front of a bus parked at the first 2016 presidential debate. The bus is touting CNN’s coverage of the 2016 race for president between Donald J. Trump and Hillary Rodham Clinton.
(Courtesy of Susan A. MacManus)

The candidates visited here over and over. During the last 100 days of the campaign, Trump visited Florida 100 times and Clinton 87 times.

Each made multiple stops here the final week before the election. Other states never saw either of them.

More than $49 million was spent on TV ads run in the Orlando and Tampa media markets — more than in any other media market in the nation.

But by the time it finally ended, Floridians were just happy it was over. The general consensus seems to be that while it was a very engaging campaign, it was too long, too negative, too expensive, and too divisive.

At the end of a very long, fiercely-fought, and contentious presidential election, Florida kept its record of picking winners intact, albeit by a very narrow 1 percent—the same margin by which Barack Obama won Florida in the 2012 election.

Few realize that since 1964, Florida has voted as the nation at-large in every election except for 1992, when George Herbert Walker Bush narrowly defeated Bill Clinton in his first race for the White House.

Pre-election polls had generally predicted that Hillary Clinton would win the Sunshine State. So when the networks called Donald Trump the winner at around 11:30 p.m. on Election Night, it came as a shock to many political analysts around the globe. It verified that the polls were unable to capture the extent of the “shadow” Trump vote.

A closer look at turnout and voting patterns reveals that Clinton was not able to repeat what Obama had done in Florida in 2012. Turnout and support levels among millennials and black voters were lower, offset by significantly higher rates among white voters in the state’s rural and suburban areas. The women’s vote was less cohesive than in 2012 and the Latino vote, while greater, was less unified than projected. Economics mattered more than other issues, and change mattered more than the status quo. In the end, those desperate for a change in direction of the country slightly outnumbered those valuing experience and the continuation of Obama’s policies.

How did Trump defy expectations?
There are 10 big reasons for Trump’s win, based on election results and a national press pool exit poll of around 4,000 Florida voters:

Reason No. 1: Trump ran up a large margin of victory in the famous Interstate 4 Corridor (the Tampa and Orlando media markets) where 44 percent of the state’s registered voters reside. Trump won the corridor 51 percent to 45 thanks to the area’s suburban counties where turnout and the vote margin for Trump was high. Trump did considerably better in three bellwether suburban counties (Pasco, Polk, and Manatee) than Romney did in 2012. Clinton won only three of the 18 counties in the corridor—Orange, Osceola, and Hillsborough—all large urban counties. Among them, the turnout rate fell in the largest (Hillsborough), although it did increase in Orange and Osceola.

Statewide, more than (54 percent) of those voting came from suburban or rural areas and most of both areas chose Trump. A majority of voters from urban areas picked Hillary.

Reason No. 2: Clinton did not do as well as Obama had in 2012. Clinton underperformed Obama’s share of the vote in every market except Miami, and underperformed his margin of victory in every market but Miami and Gainesville (narrowly). The falloff in the vote share of Clinton was steepest in the Tampa Bay media market (from 49 percent for Obama in 2012 to 44 percent for Clinton in 2016).

Reason No. 3: The state’s black voters did not turn out at the high level they did for Obama in 2012 nor did they give Clinton as wide a margin. In 2012, Obama’s margin of victory over Romney among black voters was 91 percent; hers over Trump was 76 percent.  Trump gained some support within the black community from Haitian voters around the state, thanks to his visits to Little Haiti and an aggressive radio ad campaign aimed at concentrations of Haitians around the state, including Clearwater. The falloff in black turnout has been attributed to less enthusiasm for Clinton than for Obama among some who saw breaking down the racial barrier to the White House as a bigger motivator to vote than cracking the gender glass ceiling.

Reason No. 4: Even though the Latino share of all voters increased significantly in 2016, Trump did better than expected among the state’s Hispanic voters. He received 35 percent of the Latino vote—a figure well above what many polls had projected in light of Trump’s harsh comments about immigrants. Press coverage of the impact of the huge influx of Puerto Rican votes into the state inferred that the bulk of Hispanics would vote Democrat and that would be enough to propel Clinton to the White House. (It is true that without the solidly pro-Clinton vote among Puerto Ricans, she would have lost Florida by more than 1 percent.) However, such accounts did not accurately describe the diversity of Florida’s Hispanic voters.  According to the exit poll, 54 percent of Cubans voted for Trump as did 26 percent of Florida Latinos with ties to other Latin American countries—Venezuelans and Colombians more than Mexicans, not surprising in light of Trump’s comments about “rapists” coming into the U.S. from Mexico and his plan to build a wall along the U.S.-Mexican border.  (Cubans made up 6 percent of all Florida voters; non-Cubans, 10 percent).

Reason No. 5: Clinton did not do as well among women voters as expected.  Among women voters who were the majority of all voters, Clinton got 50 percent, Trump 46 percent, and other candidates 4 percent. Her 4 percent margin of victory fell short of Obama’s 7 percent in 2012—in spite of Trump’s degrading comments about women revealed in the Access Hollywood tape. Clinton did better among single than married women, and among older women more than younger women, especially millennials. The fact that Clinton would have been the first female president had led many to predict that the women’s vote would be much more solidly for her than usual. Instead, as has been true so often throughout history, the women’s vote was not as cohesive as expected.

Reason No. 6: Clinton had difficulty generating support (and turnout) from the millennials and GenXers who make up half of Florida’s registered voters.  These generations voted heavily for Obama in 2008 and 2012 but more than a third voted for Trump in 2016. There was also stronger support among younger votes for the third party candidates—Johnson and Stein—than among older generations. It was obvious Clinton was having trouble generating the same level of support among these younger voters as had Obama by where she held events during the last two weeks of the campaign—primarily on college campuses across Florida.  For many younger voters who had leaned toward Sanders (Democrats) or Rubio (Republicans) in the March Presidential Preference Primary, Clinton represented the status quo—a continuation of the two-party system that many view as corrupt, in large part due to elected officials’ heavy reliance on campaign contributions from special interests.

Reason No. 7: Nearly half (48 percent) identified the economy as the most important issue facing the country. Of those, 49 percent voted for Clinton, 46 percent for Trump.  But other economic questions tell a different story. Two-thirds of Florida voters have a negative opinion of the current condition of the national economy; 67 percent of them voted for Trump. Likewise, more than 70 percent describe their own financial situation today as worse or about the same (stagnant) as four years ago.  A majority of each group voted for Trump. Obamacare was another economic issue that helped Trump. Nearly half of Florida voters said it “went too far” and of those, 77 percent voted for Trump.

Reason No. 8: A huge portion — 73 percent — of Florida voters were dissatisfied or angry with the federal government. Of those 59 percent voted for Trump. Anti-Washington sentiments have run deep for almost a decade. The national exit poll results show that nearly two-thirds (62 percent) of voters across the country said the country was headed in the wrong direction—albeit for different reasons. Other surveys have shown an even deeper dislike/distrust of Congress over the same period.

Reason No. 9: Clinton’s promise to continue the policies of the Obama administration made it easier for voters wanting change rather than the status quo to choose Trump. A plurality (40 percent) of Florida voters identified the ability to bring change as the candidate quality that mattered most to them, followed by experience (21 percent), cares about me (16 percent), or has good judgment (18 percent).  Trump won a whopping 85 percent of those wanting change. Hillary won 88 percent of those who valued experience and 63 percent of those desiring caring or good judgment.

Reason No. 10: The underestimation of the enthusiasm gap between Trump and Clinton supporters was one of the greatest missteps by the press and the Clinton campaign. Their erroneous assumption was that the far larger crowds Trump was drawing was more out of curiosity than any strong attraction to his platform calling for change. Yet history tells us that after one party holds the White House for two terms, enthusiasm among those identifying with the other party is greater in the next election (Republicans in 2016).

Dr. Susan A. MacManus is a distinguished professor at the University of South Florida. She is recognized widely for her expertise of Florida politics, and is a resident of Land O’ Lakes.

Published November 16,2016

Filed Under: Local News Tagged With: Barack Obama, Bill Clinton, Donald J. Trump, George Herbert Walker Bush, Hillary Rodham Clinton, Marco Rubio, Mitt Romney

Election results defy pollsters and pundits

November 16, 2016 By B.C. Manion

Donald J. Trump is next president

Pasco County voters joined the nation in selecting Donald J. Trump as the United States’ next president in the 2016 general election, while a majority of Hillsborough County voters selected Hillary Rodham Clinton, who had sought to become America’s first female president.

At Precinct 73, Karen Hanzel, a resident of Lexington Oaks , proudly displays a Trump/Pence sign as voters made their way to the polls. (Fred Bellet/Photos)
At Precinct 73, Karen Hanzel, a resident of Lexington Oaks , proudly displays a Trump/Pence sign as voters made their way to the polls.
(Fred Bellet/Photos)

Scores of voters took advantage of early voting, but hordes turned out on Nov. 8, eager to cast their ballot on Election Day.

They offered different points of view — in an election widely characterized as being historic, and divisive.

At the Alice Hall Community Center in Zephyrhills, 57-year-old voter Chris Corporra said he voted for Trump because he’s a political outsider.

Corporra said he agrees with many of Trump’s stances.

“You hire a politician, and you get political results. You get somebody on the outside, and they’ll take care of it,” Corporra said. “Trump isn’t the most polished…but, you know exactly where you stand with him.”

As Corporra drove around Zephyrhills before Election Day, he said he noticed long lines at several early voting locations. “They were out in droves. The silent majority is coming out in force.”

Kody Roberts, a registered Republican, also voted in Zephyrhills. She supported Jill Stein.

At Precinct 70, a long line forms and is reflected in a puddle of water left behind by the irrigation system early Tuesday morning.
At Precinct 70, a long line forms and is reflected in a puddle of water left behind by the irrigation system early Tuesday morning.

“I like what she stands for; I like her objectives,” the 22-year-old Roberts said. “I can’t agree with some of Trump’s beliefs, and I definitely cannot agree with some of Hillary’s, so I was just like, ‘You know what, I’m going to go third-party this time.’”

Zephyrhills resident Eric Pinson favored Trump mainly because of his platform to establish immigration controls. Pinson also expressed concern about what could happen to his Second Amendment rights, under a Clinton administration.

Meanwhile, at The Groves, Land O’ Lakes resident Jill Shelton stood in a long line to cast her vote. She brought her children, Lucy, 5, Caroline, 8, and Nicholas, 10.

“It’s history,” Shelton said, explaining why she wanted them to be there as she voted for Clinton, the first female presidential nominee of a major political party.

“This is a big moment,” Shelton said.

She did note, however, that her support for Clinton was not absolute: “I have some questions about trustworthiness for her,” she said. But, she added: “I feel Donald Trump is not fit to be our president. I think he is beyond ridiculous.”

Casey Otto, 36, brought his 4-year-old daughter, Indie, to the Lutz Community Center on Election Day. He even dressed her in red, white and blue to mark the occasion. He supported Gary Johnson. ‘I tend to be Libertarian — fiscally conservative and socially liberal. He’s most in line with my line of thinking. (B.C. Manion/Staff Photo)
Casey Otto, 36, brought his 4-year-old daughter, Indie, to the Lutz Community Center on Election Day. He even dressed her in red, white and blue to mark the occasion. He supported Gary Johnson. ‘I tend to be Libertarian — fiscally conservative and socially liberal. He’s most in line with my line of thinking.
(B.C. Manion/Staff Photo)

Fifty-eight-year-old Gordon Brown, who cast his vote at the Lutz Community Center, thinks that Clinton is the one unfit to be president.

Brown characterized Clinton as “morally bankrupt, criminally corrupt and totally untrustworthy.

“And, those are her good qualities,” he added.

Casey Otto, 36, who brought his 4-year-old daughter, Indie, with him to cast his ballot, also voted at the Lutz Community Center.

He dressed his little girl in red, white and blue to mark the occasion.

Otto supported Gary Johnson. “I tend to be Libertarian — fiscally conservative and socially liberal. He’s most in line with my line of thinking,” Otto said.

Seventy-eight-year-old Mary Gaulden, of Land O’ Lakes, sat on a stool near the Land O’ Lakes Community Center, proudly holding a Trump sign. She wanted to demonstrate her support to passing motorists and people streaming in to vote.

“I think America is at a crossroads,” Gaulden said. “I really want Donald Trump to win the presidency.”

She criticized President Barack Obama.

“Our president is not being the Commander-in-Chief that he needs to be. Our military is weakened,” said Gaulden, who arrived at the polling place at 10 a.m., and was still there in the late afternoon.

Throughout the day, she said motorists reacted to her sign.

Some honked as they drove past.

“I’ve got a thumb’s up; a thumb’s down; a bird of paradise,” Gaulden said.

Some hollered “No,” at her. Others stopped and told her they voted for Trump.

One passerby even pretended to be taking aim — with an imaginary gun — to shoot at her, she said.

Her response?

“I just waved and smiled,” Gaulden said.

No matter where they stood, voters wanted their voice to be heard.

Pasco County boasted a 72.8 percent voter turnout, with 244,620 of its 336,037 registered voters casting ballots. Turnout was slightly lower in Hillsborough County, where 606,224 of the county’s 849,843 registered voters cast ballots, or 71.3 percent.

While the presidential election clearly took center stage, voters decided many other important races and issues.

Voters gave U.S. Rep. Gus Bilirakis, a Republican in District 12, another term in Congress. He defeated Robert Matthew Tager.

A majority of Pasco and Hillsborough voters concurred with other Florida voters to send Marco Rubio back to Washington for another term in the U.S. Senate. He defeated Democratic challenger Patrick Murphy.

In state races, State Sen. Jack Latvala retained his seat in the Legislature, and Amber Mariano defeated Amanda Murphy in the race for State House District 36.

Pasco County Results:

  • Paula O’Neill defeated Roberta Cutting for Clerk of the Circuit Court and Comptroller.
  • Gary Joiner defeated Jon Sidney Larkin for Property Appraiser.
  • Ron Oakley defeated Dimitri A. Delgado for District 1 on the Pasco County Commission.
  • Kathryn Starkey defeated Barry Horvath for District 3 on the Pasco County Commission.
  • Jack Mariano defeated write-in opponents for District 5 on the Pasco County Commission.

Hillsborough County Results:

  • Andrew Warren defeated Mark Ober for State Attorney, in the 13th judicial circuit.
  • Shawn Harrison defeated Lisa Montelione for District 63 in the State House.
  • Pat Frank defeated Eric Seidel for Clerk of the Circuit Court and Comptroller.
  • Sandra Murman defeated Jeff Zampitella for District 1 of the Hillsborough County Commission.
  • Pat Kemp defeated Tim Schock for District 6 of the Hillsborough County Commission.
  • Bob Henriquez defeated Todd Donovan Jones for Hillsborough County Property Appraiser.
  • Tamara Shamburger defeated Joe Jordan Robinson for District 5 of the Hillsborough County School Board.
  • Lynn Gray defeated Cathy James for District 7 of the Hillsborough County School Board (Pending a recount).

Regarding the four Constitutional Amendments on the ballot, a majority of Pasco and

Hillsborough voters weighing in on those issues agreed with the majority of voters across the state to decide the outcomes.

They voted down an amendment relating to solar power.

They approved amendments regarding medical marijuana, a tax exemption for totally and permanently disabled first responders, and a homestead tax exemption for certain senior, low-income and long-term residents.

—Laker/Lutz News staff writers Kathy Steele and Kevin Weiss contributed to this report.

Published November 16, 2016

Filed Under: Local News Tagged With: Alice Hall Comunity Center, Andrew Warren, Barack Obama, Barry Horvath, Bob Henriquez, Casey Otto, Cathy James, Chris Corporra, Dimitri Delgado, Donald J. Trump, Eric Pinson, Eric Seidel, Gary Johnson, Gary Joiner, Gordon Brown, Gus Bilirakis, Hillary Rodham Clinton, Jack Latvala, Jack Mariano, Jeff Zampitella, Jill Shelton, Jill Stein, Joe Jordan Robinson, Jon Sidney Larkin, Kathryn Starkey, Kody Roberts, Land O' Lakes, Lisa Montelione, Lutz Community Center, Lynn Gray, Marco Rubio, Mark Ober, Mary Gaulden, Pat Frank, Pat Kemp, Patrick Murphy, Paula O' Neill, Robert Matthew Tager, Roberta Cutting, Ron Oakley, Sandra Murman, Shawn Harrison, Tamara Shamburger, The Grove, Tim Schock, Todd Donovan Jones, Zephyrhills

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03/05/2021 – Apple Pie Bombs

The Pasco County Library Cooperative will offer “Foodie Feast: Apple Pie Bombs” on March 5. Participants can learn how to make tasty, apple pie bombs. Watch the prerecorded video between 10 a.m. and 5 p.m., online at Facebook.com/hughembrylibrary or Facebook.com/newriverlibrary. For information, call 352-567-3576, or email Danielle Lee at . … [Read More...] about 03/05/2021 – Apple Pie Bombs

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