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Florida at the DNC: Witness to History

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Last week, the Democrats held their 2016 national convention in Philadelphia — the City of Brotherly Love and Sisterly Affection — and formally nominated Hillary Clinton for president and Sen. Tim Kaine for vice president.

When the balloon drop happened at the 2016 Democratic National Committee, it seemed like the balloons would never stop dropping, besides being plentiful — many of the balloons were huge. (Photos courtesy of Dr. Susan A. MacManus)
When the balloon drop happened at the 2016 Democratic National Committee, it seemed like the balloons would never stop dropping, besides being plentiful — many of the balloons were huge.
(Photos courtesy of Dr. Susan A. MacManus)

The Democratic National Convention followed the Republican National Convention, held the week before in Cleveland. Traditionally, the party that occupies the White House always goes second.

Florida’s 246 delegates headed to Philly knowing they would have a front row seat to watch history in the making — the nomination of the first woman presidential candidate from a major political party.

Hillary Clinton’s journey from her nomination to her acceptance speech was filled with surprises. So, too, were the four days that the delegates spent together.

Great Expectations: Met or not?
Florida delegates arrived in Philly fired up and ready to go, expecting their convention to:

  • Underscore the importance of winning Florida in November. Florida! Florida! Florida! Met? Yes.
  • Avoid any unpleasant surprises such as had occurred at the GOP convention. (Recall the Melania Trump speech plagiarism accusation and Ted Cruz’s refusal to endorse Trump.) Met? No.
  • Unify the party; bring Bernie Sanders supporters into the fold, especially since Sanders himself was being given a prime time speaking spot and had already endorsed Hillary Clinton. Met? Not yet.
  • Showcase the Democrat Party’s diversity (“race, creed, color, ethnicity, income level, education, faith, sexual orientation, gender identity”) and the campaign’s “Stronger Together” theme via media coverage of a diverse line-up of speakers. Met? Yes.
  • Sharply contrast Clinton’s experience and temperament with that of Trump. Met? Yes.
  • Energize delegates to go back home and work hard to elect Democrats all the way down the ballot. Met? Yes.
  • Get a post-convention bounce in the polls erasing the bounce Trump got following the GOP convention. Met? Yes.
From left, Elena McCullough, alternate delegate, of Wesley Chapel; Elaine Togneri, delegate, of New Port Richey; and, Dr. Susan A. MacManus chat at the Florida delegation breakfast. MacManus, a political scientist at the University of South Florida, is a nationally known expert on Florida politics.
From left, Elena McCullough, alternate delegate, of Wesley Chapel; Elaine Togneri, delegate, of New Port Richey; and, Dr. Susan A. MacManus chat at the Florida delegation breakfast. MacManus, a political scientist at the University of South Florida, is a nationally known expert on Florida politics.

On a more personal level, several female delegates made it perfectly clear that what they wanted most out of the convention was to savor the moment when Hillary accepted the nomination. They had supported Hillary in 2008, cried when she lost, and vowed to work hard for her again in 2016. To them the shattering of the glass ceiling with a win by Hillary was a giant step toward getting more women elected to higher-level offices.

Once Again, Florida gets special treatment
While Democrats can win the presidency without winning Florida, they absolutely want to win Florida in 2016 for two big reasons: (1) Florida’s open U.S. Senate seat is seen as critical to Democrats taking back control of that chamber, and (2) to offset any possible Trump victories in Rust Belt states. No surprise then that Florida delegates got special treatment at the DNC:

  • A great hotel location: The Downtown Marriott, also home to the California delegation.
  • Appearances by the “A” list of national speakers at delegation breakfasts: Sen./ VP nominee Tim Kaine, Sen. Bernie Sanders, Congress members Nancy Pelosi, Rosa DeLauro, Luis Gutierrez, Joaquin Castro, Barbara Lee, Joe Kennedy III, Sen. Amy Klobuchar, Sen. Tammy Baldwin, Rev. Jesse Jackson, Gov. Terry McAuliffe (VA), former Gov. Howard Dean, and former U.S. Attorney Gen. Eric Holder, to name a few.
  • Great seats on the convention floor: Besides having great seats, Florida delegates were in a prime location for TV cameras to catch shots of them dancing and engaging in hoopla. Florida delegates rocked!

Best moments

  • Bringing party icons to the stage: President Barack Obama, Vice President Joe Biden, First Lady Michelle Obama, former President Bill Clinton. Each of them generated long, loud cheers and helped rally strong support among delegates who do not want to lose the White House.
  • Entertainment with an edge: Clever vignettes were flashed on the screen during down times, made up of “Trumpisms” (his words) and “A Message From Your Possible Next President” spoofs. They drew lots of laughs and sharpened the contrast between The Donald and Hillary.
  • Speakers with targeted messages: Among the more memorable speeches were those by former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg, who appealed to independent voters to support Clinton; Khizr Kahn, the father of an American Muslim soldier killed in Iraq in 2004 who made the point that not all Muslims are terrorists; and pleas for gun control by Gabby Giffords and Mothers of the Movement (African-American women whose children were killed by gun violence).
  • Chelsea Clinton’s introduction of Hillary: The warm emotional embrace between mother and daughter brought tears to many eyes.
  • Hillary’s acceptance speech: It was not as much the content of her speech as it was the context. So many supporters had waited a lifetime to see the gender barrier broken.
  • The balloon drop: Isn’t it always the best?

Worst moments

  • A lousy way to start a convention was the WikiLeak release of Democratic National Committee emails showing the party had played favorites in the primary by promoting Hillary over Bernie. It incensed the large Sanders delegation, and energized his supporters both inside and outside the convention arena. It resulted in the resignation of DNC Chair Debbie Wasserman Schultz of Florida. Her appearance at the kickoff Florida delegation breakfast drew loud boos from Bernie supporters and nonstop negative national media coverage.
  • Continued disruptions on the convention floor by Sanders delegates, especially when subjects of Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) or military engagement were raised, but even in the middle of Hillary’s history-making acceptance speech. Hillary supporters complained that Sanders supporters were disrespectful, sore losers. Bernie supporters were themselves divided. Some blamed him for “selling out” when he called for Hillary’s nomination by acclamation. Others let it be known it was ridiculous to expect them to immediately jump onto the Hillary bandwagon. After all, for months they had put all their energy into the Sanders campaign, which had to them become a movement — not just support for an individual. The delegates left Philly with plenty of “Bernie or Bust” and “Never Hillary” sentiment still out there.

Celebrities, not swag
Florida Republicans went home from their convention with swag. Florida Democrats left Philly with photos and memories of “mingling” with stars from the entertainment and sports worlds, each chosen to connect with a specific generation. From the entertainment world: Meryl Streep, Sigourney Weaver, Angela Bassett, Sarah Silverman, Lena Dunham, Elizabeth Banks, Eva Longoria, Chloe Grace Moretz, Star Jones, Alicia Keys, Katy Perry, Lenny Kravitz, and Paul Simon. From the sports world: Kareem Abdul-Jabbar.

Florida delegates headed back from the convention knowing they’ll need to work hard in what is likely to be another fiercely fought election in the Sunshine State, and in the nation.

By Susan A. MacManus

Dr. Susan A. MacManus is a resident of Land O’ Lakes. She a political scientist at the University of South Florida and was a political analyst for ABC Action News at the 2016 Democratic National Convention in Philadelphia.

Published August 3, 2016

Carville’s remarks at Saint Leo are provocative, snappy

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Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton is almost certain to be the Democratic nominee for president in 2016, according to political strategist James Carville.

Her chances of winning are “no worse than 50-50,” said Carville who was keynote speaker on the opening day of the sixth annual International Business Conference at Saint Leo University. This year’s conference theme was “Best Practices in Global Organizations.”

James Carville talks about the presidential contenders for 2016. (Fred Bellet/Photo)
James Carville talks about the presidential contenders for 2016.
(Fred Bellet/Photo)

Before an audience of about 200 people, Carville entertained with funny anecdotes and blunt remarks on the dysfunctions of national politics.

The ‘ragin Cajun,” as he is sometimes called, was the Democratic strategist who led Bill Clinton’s successful presidential campaign in 1992, popularizing the slogan – “It’s the economy, stupid.” Clinton defeated incumbent President George H.W. Bush who, months before the election and in the aftermath of the first Gulf War, enjoyed more than 91 percent popularity in polls.

“I think (Hillary) has a good chance,” he said. “But running for president is enormously difficult.”

She will have to show how she is “substantively and stylistically” different from President Obama. “Whatever you may think of Obama, people are kind of looking for something different. They always are,” Carville said.

And the Republican candidate will be?

“I give (Chris) Christie no chance,” he said. “I give Jeb (Bush) less of a chance than most handicappers…and Ted Cruz a little more of a chance.”

Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney recently backed away from a third presidential run. But Romney is waiting and watching, Carville said.

“I think Mitt is doing his knitting on the sideline. If anybody is looking for Jeb Bush to lose in New Hampshire, he is.”

Carville tagged Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker as a must-win candidate in Iowa, or he will be out of the race. But like Romney, he also is counting on a Bush loss in New Hampshire’s primary.

Carville was a counterpoint to conservative pundit Tucker Carlson, who was last year’s keynote speaker at the business conference.

“It’s great for students,” said Frank Orlando, political science instructor at the university. “I want kids to pay attention to different issues. It’s important to know them.”

Emily Mincey, 21, a junior majoring in history, is focused on a career as a political strategist.

“Politics is where I want to go,” she said. “I’ve always wanted to know what was going on. I want to look for candidates who are smart. We can’t function without good politicians.”

Mincey said she doesn’t agree with Carville on every issue, but he is an example of how to be successful in politics.

Dade City resident Lex Smith also doesn’t always agree with Carville. But he said, “I always respect his opinions. I always enjoy hearing what he has to say.”

Carville’s remarks were provocative and snappy.

The country is divided, he said, with Democrats clustered in cities and Republicans in rural communities. A check of the election map in Pennsylvania in 2012 is a stark picture of the political landscape, he said.

President Obama carried the state by 5 percent of the total vote. But within 18 Congressional districts, he carried only five. It is an example of why Democrats are better positioned to win presidential elections and Republicans Congressional elections.

“Because of clusters, we don’t interact in the way we used to do,” Carville said. “Everyone is comfortable with their own coalition.”

Florida will be ground zero for Republicans in the presidential election because the state has 29 of the 270 electoral votes needed to capture the White House. “If you win Florida, you bust the numbers,” he said. “You cannot draw a map that Republicans can ever win the presidency without Florida.”

Democrats, however, can pursue strategies in swing states, such as New Hampshire, Virginia and Ohio, to create a path to win, he added.

Carville credited boxer Mike Tyson with inadvertently making the smartest comment ever about politics when Tyson said “Everybody’s got a plan until they get hit in the mouth.”

Anyone who runs for president will get hit in the mouth a lot, Carville said.

On Hillary Clinton, he said there is an understanding among Democrats that it is her turn to run for president. That is why Sen. Elizabeth Warren won’t get into the race, Carville said.

President Obama is a different kind of politician. “Most of them are in politics because they like people,” Carville said. “It’s kind of odd for someone to be in politics to not be as concerned with what people think about them as he does. It’s like being a banker and you don’t like money.”

In recent years Carville, 70, has taught political science at Tulane University in New Orleans and consulted for candidates in international elections. He is a friend of the Clintons, but said he has no plans to take on another national campaign. “I don’t want to be in centerfield with fly balls hitting me in the head,” he said.

Still, Carville said he went into politics knowing it was a contact sport.

“Didn’t nobody have more fun doing what he did than James Carville,” he said.

Published February 25, 2015

Clinton finds serious Florida challenge from Jeb

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If the 2016 presidential election were held today, Floridians would be ready to give the Sunshine State’s 29 electoral votes to former secretary of state Hillary Clinton.

That is, unless Jeb Bush decides to run.

A new survey by the Saint Leo University Polling Institute said that if both Clinton and the former governor end up representing their respective parties in the presidential race, voters in Florida, at least, would be split on whom to choose.

The poll, conducted between Nov. 25 and Dec. 7, gave 43 percent of support to Jeb Bush, while 42 percent picked Clinton.

No other early contenders did too well against the one-time First Lady. Clinton got 50 percent support against Kentucky senator Rand Paul, and 45 percent against New Jersey governor Chris Christie.

Clinton hit 51 percent against Texas senator Ted Cruz, and 48 percent against former Massachusetts governor and 2012 Republican nominee Mitt Romney.

Florida senator Marco Rubio held his ground a little better, however, earning 42 percent support among Floridians compared to 46 percent from Clinton.

Bush might be a favorite among Floridians, but at least one expert says it might be difficult for the two-term governor to gain momentum in the national spotlight.

“People perceive Jeb Bush differently in the rest of the country,” said Saint Leo University political instructor Frank Orlando, in a release. “Inside Florida, he’s Jeb. Outside of Florida, he’s George’s brother,” as in George W. Bush.

“Jeb Bush continues to struggle to separate his personality from the former president. However, inside the Sunshine State, he stands for himself. He’s his own man. He’s been the most popular figure in the state for a generation.”

Bush has a tremendous lead in Florida over other potential Republican nominees, carrying 34 percent support compared to 15 percent from Romney, according to the Saint Leo poll. Rubio had 10 percent support, while medical doctor Ben Carson is pulling 8 percent.

If their first choice decided not to run, Bush still lead among second picks with 18 percent, followed by Rubio at 15 percent and Romney at 13 percent.

Among Democrats, it might be impossible to topple Clinton. She has 63 percent support in Florida, with Vice President Joe Biden a distant second at 8 percent.

Biden, however, does lead among second choices with 25 percent, followed by Clinton with 13 percent and Massachusetts senator Elizabeth Warren at 11 percent.

Saint Leo polled 500 Florida adults, including 420 likely voters, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percent.