The Laker/Lutz News

Great Recession

Chamber executive shares lessons learned from COVID

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Headlines are being dominated by the rapid spread of the Omicron variant of COVID-19, and scientists and health experts are working to understand its potential impacts, and how to prevent and treat it.

But there already have been many lessons learned by Pasco County’s business community, in terms of responding to the COVID-19 pandemic — which began having widespread disruptions in March 2020, according to Hope Kennedy, president and CEO of the North Tampa Bay Chamber of Commerce.

Hope Kennedy is CEO and president of the North Tampa Bay Chamber of Commerce. While the COVID-19 pandemic has been disruptive, it also has yielded valuable lessons, she says. (Courtesy of North Tampa Bay Chamber)

Kennedy has a broad perspective on the issue because her chamber work involves large business operations, startup entrepreneurs, legislators, local organizations and business leaders.

In reflecting upon the impacts of the pandemic, Kennedy said beyond presenting challenges, it also has offered valuable lessons.

And, as she looks ahead to 2022, she’s optimistic about the opportunities that await.

Going back to the beginning of the pandemic, Kennedy said: “None of us was prepared for any of this that was coming.”

It has been challenging and particularly painful for enterprises that didn’t survive, she said.

But those who made it through, are emerging stronger, Kennedy said.

“We’re better business leaders. We are more in tune with our businesses,” the chamber executive said.

“What I saw most is that people were able to say: ‘OK, we’ve been doing this forever and ever. We can’t do it that way. What can we do to still deliver our product, our goods, our services in a more efficient manner?’”

The companies and organizations that were able to key in on their essential mission and to adapt their operations have become more focused and efficient, she said.

The chamber, itself, was forced to change. It went to remote operations within hours.

“We eliminated some of our programs,” she said, which also is true for many businesses.

Now, as businesses look to the future, they need to ask:  “What are the barriers? What are things that are stopping us?”

For instance, workforce and affordable housings are big issues.

“There are some barriers to entry of people in the workforce. There’s barriers to entry in affordable housing,” Kennedy said.

“So, what can we do to have conversations, to just see what those barriers are — because chances are, we can get around them,” she said.

The silver lining from the pandemic, Kennedy said, is that it offered time for introspection, and “it has opened our (way of) thinking.”

Attracting employees and training those who want to reenter the workforce are topics of conversation across the community, Kennedy said.

There’s no silver bullet to ever-evolving workforce issues, but the chamber plans to lead conversations on the issue, she said.

“It is a huge focus at the chamber for the coming year, to make sure we understand the needs of the businesses and what they are looking for,” Kennedy said.

“Pasco-Hernando Career Source is going to be a huge help to the business community, in these coming years. One, identifying the need of the workforce and two, connecting the training,” she said.

“There is a (national) program called Second-Chance Hiring, and it’s for folks who have been formerly incarcerated, and/or have a felony on their record,” she said. “I want in on it.”

People with a criminal record are often automatically knocked out of consideration for job openings, Kennedy said.

“There’s an opportunity for us, as business leaders, to come up with a system,” she said, aimed at helping employers fill jobs and giving applicants a chance to work — who want to work, but are barred from entry.

She pointed to Walmart as an employer who gives applicants a second chance, on a case-by-case basis.

Over the course of her career in chamber work, Kennedy said she’s faced an assortment of difficult times. She dealt with the aftermath of Hurricane Ivan, while she was working in Pensacola. Then came the Great Recession, then the BP oil spill.

When COVID hit, reactions varied from place to place, Kennedy.

Some chambers across the country ceased operations because they were not technically ready to make the shift to virtual operations,” she said.

“Some communities crumbled. Ours came together.

“Our community rallied.

“We rallied around each other. We had takeout Tuesdays,” she said.

“We did a ‘We are Open’ campaign,” she said, using social media to spread the word.

She said COVID reinforced a lesson she grasped in other turbulent times.

“I learned that in every single adversity, there is a solution.

“There absolutely is a solution.

“It might not be right in front of you.

“You can’t lose sight of your ultimate goal,” Kennedy said.

Published January 05, 2022

Pastor ready to ‘just pedal’ into retirement

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Officially, he’s the Rev. Monsignor Ronald Aubin.

Around Our Lady of the Rosary Catholic Church, in Land O’ Lakes, though, he’s better known as Father Ron.

The Rev. Monsignor Ron Aubin led Our Lady of the Rosary through many changes during his 27 years as pastor. Here he is blessing ground for a new construction project. (Courtesy of Our Lady of the Rosary)

Aubin, who has been at the church for 27 years, has led the parish through two relocations, construction projects, rapid growth, the Great Recession and the COVID-19 pandemic — and those are just some of the high-profile events.

There also are the more intimate — and more regular rituals — of being a parish pastor.

The First Communions he’s distributed.

The homilies he’s delivered.

The marriages and funerals he’s officiated.

And, the visits he’s made to nursing homes, hospitals and to the jail, to offer words of comfort and spiritual guidance to others, in a time of need.

Aubin was ordained to the priesthood on April 23, 1981, making this year his 40th as a priest.

He arrived at Our Lady of the Rosary on July 1, 1994, when the church was still located on the southwest corner of U.S. 41 and State Road 54.

Both of those roads were two lanes at the time, and there were very few stoplights, the pastor recalled.

The Rev. Ron Aubin, left, of Our Lady of the Rosary, received the title of monsignor. He stands alongside the Most Rev. Robert Lynch, then Bishop of the Diocese of St. Petersburg.

“There are two churches there now. One on the north side of the highway and one on the south side of the highway. Both were ours. Except the one on the north side of the street used to be on the south side of the street.

“When they widened the intersection there — widened (U.S.) 41 to four lanes, did the whole intersection, they were going to chop off the (smaller) church,” Aubin said. Instead, the building was sold to the Episcopal Church, which paid $1, and moved it across the street.

Our Lady of the Rosary had already relocated into the larger building at the intersection, which would later become home to Keystone Community Church.

Our Lady of the Rosary moved to its current campus at 2348 Collier Parkway, on Nov. 27, 1999.

The new construction at the site began with a church and an office, and over time, has included classrooms, an early childhood center and, most recently, a youth center.

“Everything on this property was done during my years here — thanks to the efforts of a good number of people,” the pastor said.

Aubin has already experienced some moments of personal joy. Some of the brightest moments came when three parishioners — Israel Hernandez, Kyle Smith and Bill Wilson — were ordained to the priesthood, the church leader said.

Over the years, the church also built some strong, longstanding ministries.

Father Ron, as he’s known around Our Lady of the Rosary parish, said he was raised in an environment ‘where Christ was the center of our lives.’ He said he was surrounded by Irish priests and nuns at church and in school at his parish of Immaculate Conception. ‘We jokingly referred to them as FBI — foreign-born Irish, as opposed to the CIA, conceived in America. That was my world.’

Its scouting program, which includes Troop 33 and Troop 34 — boasted 11 Eagle Scouts in a single ceremony two years ago.

Its Knights of Columbus Council 8104 is known for the legendary fish fry it hosts each Friday during Lent.

And, its food pantry operated by St. Vincent de Paul is a regular source of help for those in need.

Its membership also has grown considerably, too, through the years.

When Aubin arrived at the parish, it had 830-some families; now, it has well over 3,000.

It had a greater membership at its peak, but then the Great Recession hit, forcing young families to move, to seek employment, the pastor said.

“When you’re parents raising babies, you can’t sit back and wait for something to happen. You’ve got to go and find a job. There are some neighborhoods, I am told, that half of the houses were sold, in this area,” Aubin.

The Recession was challenging — but COVID-19 essentially shut everything down.

“There was just zero contact,” Aubin said.

“They couldn’t come here. We couldn’t go there.

“We couldn’t even go to the hospitals to visit people. We couldn’t go to the jail, the nursing homes — any of those places,” he said.

The parish adapted. Staffers with technical know-how stepped up to begin live-streaming Masses in Spanish and English.

The Rev. Monsignor Ron Aubin, better known as Father Ron, holds some gluten-free communion wafers, with an aim to be sensitive to parishioners’ dietary needs.

Staff reached out to parishioners to send in large photos of themselves that could be attached to chairs, so priests could look at the faces while saying the Mass.

The parish followed guidance from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and from the Diocese of St. Petersburg, in re-establishing in-person services.

Still, as the country reopens, Aubin expects that some who stopped attending during the pandemic, won’t return.

The trend toward disengagement began about a dozen years ago, Aubin said.

Before the Great Recession, the church had about 1,200 kids in its various programs, he said. Pre-COVID, they were down to 800. During COVID-19, the programs were virtually non-existent.

“I was at a meeting yesterday and other pastors were voicing the same concern. We really have to try to reach out to our young families,” Aubin said.

That disengagement is not something that Aubin — who attended Catholic schools and joined the seminary at age 16 — personally understands.

God, he says, has been “the ‘be all, end all,’ of my life.

“I can’t imagine this present world or the world to come without him. So, I want to share that gift with others,” Aubin said.

The pastor does understand, however, that reaching young people today is much different that it was during his youth.

Fortunately, Aubin expects the new leadership at Our Lady of the Rosary to bring fresh ideas and new energy.

The Rev. Justin Paskert, who will be the new pastor, is coming to the parish from his role as chaplain for the Catholic Student Center at the University of South Florida.

“I’m excited for the parish,” Aubin said.

“I love this place. There’s a certain sadness in leaving, but there’s also joy in knowing that it’s going into good hands. Father Justin will revive it and get it moving again.”

Aubin’s final Masses are this weekend, on June 26 and June 27.

His message will focus on his mantra through the years at the parish, based on a poem called “Just Pedal.”

In essence, it’s about keeping the faith and carrying on, even when the future is not always clear.

“Just pedal. Embrace the change,” Aubin said. “You just have to keep on moving. If you’re not changing, you’re dying.”

Published June 23, 2021

Pasco County’s budget forecast looks bright, budget director says

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Pasco County’s taxable assessed values are expected to increase 7% to 10% for the coming budget year, according to Robert Goehig, the county’s budget director.

He delivered that forecast during the Pasco County Commission’s March 9 meeting.

The budget director gave board members an overview of impacts from COVID-19 on the county’s economy, and the way looking forward.

“When the coronavirus and the pandemic first came upon us, we experienced the economic recession, which is defined, of course, as two consecutive quarters of negative economic growth,” he said.

The recession was much deeper than the Great Recession experienced from 2007 to 2009, but it was much shorter, too — lasting just two economic quarters, Goehig said.

“We’re expecting the economy to move along at kind of a very slow pace, until a substantial portion of the population is vaccinated, whether that be April, May, June, whatever that is. “Once we have that substantial portion of the population vaccinated, we expect the economy to grow at a very fast pace.

“Luckily, we’re in an area that’s expected to see growth even above the national average.

“If we’re expecting a national growth rate of 8%, we’re expecting the Tampa rate to be higher than that,” Goehig said.

Industries expected to have the most growth are construction, financial services and other services, which include repair and maintenance, personal care services and social advocacy, according to slides in Goehig’s presentation.

“We have some evidence to point toward the fast-growing Tampa region,” he said, noting that Tampa Bay startups raised $180 million in 2020, compared to $129 million in 2018.

He also noted that Tampa leads the nation in small business job growth.

Plus, more corporations from the northeast region of the country are relocating to Florida. And, more residents are moving here, too, he said.

All of this is having an impact on the region’s housing market.

“The existing home price in the past year or so took a sharp spike,” he said, which indicates a shortage in existing homes for sale.

“This partially explains the reason that so much new construction is happening in our region,” Goehig said.

Regional home values are on the rise, in both the resale and new construction market.

There has been a price appreciation of 8% for resale homes and 9% for new homes, while at the same time there’s been a 7% increase in new home sales.

Goehig offered evidence of Pasco’s hot market by noting “two of the top 50 planned housing communities in the United States, two of those best-sellers are right here in Pasco. That’s Starkey Ranch and Bexley,” the budget director added.

“Of course, all of this growth does come at a price, and that is inflation. Our area is more than double the national average in inflation,” he said.

Demand for construction materials is causing the price to go up, and the county is expected to feel the effects of inflation, in particular, during construction of roads and buildings, he said.

During fiscal year 2021, the county was very conservative because of the pandemic, and didn’t bring on much new spending, Goehig said.

This year, with a brighter outlook, the county can invest in some new initiatives, he said.

Plus, Goehig said the county will be waiting for guidance from the treasury department before recommending how to spend any funds coming from the recently passed federal stimulus bill.

Meanwhile, on the local front, construction of single-family homes has kicked into high gear.

“At the end of the year, we were seeing single-family home permits coming into the building department at record levels, at 600 homes per month.

“We thought we were at the peak, we can’t possibly get any higher. And, then we turned the calendar in January, had almost 900 single-family homes in January.

“So, we expect this to continue,” he said.

The permit value for commercial construction also is significantly higher, too, the budget director said.

Plus, the county is benefiting from tourism — as visitors pay bed taxes and spend money in the local economy.

Goehig noted that “with the exception of the gas tax, revenue is on an upward trajectory.”

The county expects to receive information about its preliminary taxable values from the property appraiser on June 1 and the final assessed values on July 1.

The county is expected to set its tentative tax rates on July 6, which are reported in Truth in Millage (TRIM) notices mailed to property owners.

Once the TRIM notices go out, the board can choose to lower the rates, but cannot raise them, when adopting its final budget.

Published March 17, 2021

Pasco schools brace for tough budget

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Pasco County Schools is gearing up for a tough budget year.

“We have been working on budget,” Pasco County Schools Superintendent Kurt Browning told school board members at a May 5 virtual school board meeting.

“It’s not a so-rosy picture of a budget. We’re working with department budgets and the district budget as a whole. We know that it’s going to be tight, and we’re very cautious going into this next budget and school year, not knowing what the Legislature is going to do, or possibly do, as it relates to any special session.

“I just wanted the board to know that we’re having some very, very, very serious discussions about the budget,” Browning said.

Pasco County School board member Allen Altman tells board members that the district is likely to encounter a tough budget year. (File)

Board member Allen Altman told his colleagues that they need to be forward-thinking about the possibility of budget cuts.

He said having to make cuts during the Great Recession was “the worst experience of my elected career.”

“I can tell you that I’ve talked to a couple of directors of state agencies in the past week, who have quietly been told to look at what a 20% cut would do. And, I looked today at the sales tax figures for Florida for month of March and they were down $770 million, and April is expected to be even worse.

“We don’t need to start jumping out of ships yet, but I think that it would be prudent for us to be cognizant of the situation that the state and other local governments may be in and consider that, as we make decisions going forward,” he said.

He also told board members he had met with the Value Adjustment Board and the county’s tax roll will be certified at about $27.4 billion for 2019. That compares to slightly more than $25 billion for 2018.

But, he said, “there is some fear going forward that commercial real estate, especially in retail and boxes, could see upwards of a 20% decline.”

Board member Cynthia Armstrong said she listened to a webinar hosted by the Florida School Boards Association that featured three chief financial officers talking about what to expect, and what school boards should be doing.

Revenue figures for April will be released on May 25, which should give the district an idea of what it will be looking at, she said.

During the webinar, the CFO said  “to expect that it’s very possible that the Legislature might go into special session, say in November, and adjust the budget, and we definitely could have some drawbacks,” Armstrong said.

“So, when we do our budget, we’re going to have to think about that, that it’s very likely that the budget could be cut, partway through the year, and we need to make sure that we’re planning for that,” she said.

“It’s going to be a very tough budgeting year for us,” she said.

She also noted that supporting the pay raise that’s in state legislation may require the district to reduce its staffing allocations.

Armstrong also urged the board to return to a face-to-face board meetings, to the degree possible, as soon as possible.

She said that fosters better communications at a time when important conversations must be had.

School board member Alison Crumbley agreed that discussions are more effective when they are done in person, to the degree possible.

“Hopefully, we’re going to get to that point really, really soon,” she said.

School will feel different, going forward
Don Peace, president of United School Employees of Pasco (USEP), commented on distance learning and what to expect in the future.

“Some students have found that they are better suited to this manner of learning. Still others long to be back in the traditional classroom, interacting with teachers and classmates,” Peace said.

“Maybe there’s case to be made that a hybrid of sorts could be utilized for future learning, capturing the best of both worlds,” Peace added.

“Whatever the case, I think we better have some options available next fall.

“However next year plays out, whether we start on time, or after Labor Day, it will definitely not be the same scenario that we left before Spring Break.

“Families may decide it not best for their student to return to a brick-and-mortar building for either real, or imagined, fears.

“Some of our teachers may elect not to return for their own reasons.

“I think that next year is going to be really trying for all of us, in matters other than just financial.

“I am asking the district to keep USEP in the communication loop, regarding any future plans, as we certainly are all in this together,” Peace said.

Published May 20, 2020

Pasco County’s fiscal picture appears bright for 2020

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As budget planning ramps up for fiscal year 2020, Pasco County officials believe the county has bright economic prospects for the coming year.

“We’re now projecting for the fiscal 2020 budget an increase of 9.5 percent of countywide taxable assessed values. That is the same increase as we had in fiscal year 2019,” said Robert Goehig, budget director for Pasco County.

“This 9.5 percent increase is huge. It’s unprecedented. We haven’t seen increases like this, really, at all. At 9.5 percent increase of assessed value, that generates about an additional $18.5 million in property tax revenues,” the budget expert told the Pasco County Commission, during a workshop session on April 30.

He also noted that the expected rate of the increase for the coming year is the same as it was in 2008, before the Great Recession.

Unlike then, however, the underlying economy is much stronger, Goehig said.

“We feel we’re in a better position now than we were in 2008 because, in 2008, a lot of those home values were really hyper-inflated,” Goehig said.

“Those assessed values now are more based on reason, more based on the market supply and demand than they were 11 years ago. Plus, we’ve added $7 billion in new construction to the assessed value base since then,” the budget director said.

Paying close attention to the economy is important, he added, because it has an impact on the county’s operation.

“So, as the economy does well, people are out spending money. They’re investing in their businesses; they’re investing in their homes.

“This increases sales tax. People travel. That increases fuel tax, which allows us to provide the services that our customers have come to expect,” he said.

As the economy cools, however, the county is less able to meet its customers’ expectations, he said.

To stay on top of the economy, the county monitors all of the standard national, regional and state measures, such as inflation, unemployment and gross domestic product, he said.

It also considers building permit activity, half-cent sales tax revenues and the amount of trash taken to the county’s solid waste site, Goehig added. A decline in those three indicators serves as an early warning signal that the local economy is cooling, he explained.

Because of the current strength of these indicators, the county expects its economy to remain strong, whether or not other places experience a downturn, he said.

“Single-family residential permits is just going through the roof,” Goehig said, noting there were nearly 500 single-family housing permits issued in March.

He also noted that half-cent sales tax revenues are growing at a rate of about 4 percent a year.

Gearing up for the fiscal year 2020 budget, the county is using a new approach, the budget official said.

“In a change this year to our budget process, we’ve asked our department directors to give us all of the initiatives they believe they need to operate their business. In the past years, they’ve kind of self-selected and they haven’t brought forth things that they need because they thought, ‘I’m never getting money for this, why should I even bring it up?’

“We’ve asked them: Even if you think you’re not getting the money for it, bring it up and we’ll discuss it.

“As a result, we’ve gotten over a hundred business plan initiatives that address the general fund and the municipal services fund,” he said.

County Administrator Dan Biles said funding decisions on those priorities will be based on prioritizing the list, then matching it with available funds.

“I haven’t looked at the priority list yet,” Biles said, but he assured commissioners that staff will meet with them individually and they’ll have a chance to look at the entire list.

Much of the discussion about priorities that ultimately will make it into the budget is expected at a budget workshop set for June 25.

“That’s when we’ll dive into the details,” Biles said.

Published May 08, 2019

New centers coming soon to Land O’ Lakes

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What the Great Recession took away, boom times are bringing back.

Three properties in Land O’ Lakes, along U.S. 41 and State Road 54, are poised to deliver new restaurants, retail and offices. All three sites languished as the economy tanked.

Now, Strategic Properties Group is ready to build the first of three new shopping centers on land that the real estate development firm held onto for nearly a decade.

Two more centers are in planning stages.

First up is Camp Indianhead Crossings, a triangular swath of land fronting State Road 54, at the corner of Camp Indianhead Road.

Camp Indianhead Crossings will open in early 2017 with Hungry Greek and OTB Delight Café among its tenants. An artist’s rendering shows the shopping center as a one-story building at State Road 54 and Camp Indianhead Road in Land O’ Lakes. (Photos courtesy of Strategic Properties Group)
Camp Indianhead Crossings will open in early 2017 with Hungry Greek and OTB Delight Café among its tenants. An artist’s rendering shows the shopping center as a one-story building at State Road 54 and Camp Indianhead Road in Land O’ Lakes.
(Photos courtesy of Strategic Properties Group)

Hungry Greek and OTB Café are the first announced tenants. Both restaurants also have locations at The Shoppes of Wesley Chapel on Bruce B. Downs Boulevard.

A groundbreaking will get dirt moving this week on the slightly more than 1 ½-acre site, according to Barry Jackson, managing member of Strategic Properties.

The swath, just west of Pep Boys, will be home to a one-story building with approximately 12,700 square feet of restaurant, retail and office space. Facades on both sides of the structure will match. Multiple driveways onto the site will include an entrance off State Road 54.

In addition to Hungry Greek and OTB, Jackson is negotiating with a national chain restaurant for a third dining spot at the center.

A nationally known hair salon also is anticipated at Camp Indianhead.

Exit Prime Realty and Jackson’s own company will relocate offices to the new center.

Another 6,500 square feet remains leasable.

Jackson said a nail salon likely could be another tenant.

“I’ve had several talking with me,” he said.

Jackson expects to have the building ready for occupancy by the end of the year. Tenants then will complete the build out for their individual spaces.

Some shops could open in February, with restaurants likely to open in March.

Barry Jackson is managing member of Strategic Properties Group. The real estate development company plans to build three shopping centers in Land O’ Lakes.
Barry Jackson is managing member of Strategic Properties Group. The real estate development company plans to build three shopping centers in Land O’ Lakes.

Visibility and traffic volume along State Road 54 made the location an attractive real estate buy in 2006. But, just as Jackson anticipated construction, the bottom fell out of the economy, and the project stalled out.

With the economy rebounding and development on State Road 54 humming again, Camp Indianhead finally is ready for its debut. Its attractiveness is still intact, Jackson said.

“Demographics in the area are terrific,” he said. “The county counts about 70,000 cars a day between Collier Parkway and U.S. 41. You pick up all the traffic going both ways from the two intersections.”

Strategic Properties is eyeing development of two more shopping centers in Land O’ Lakes that also had to wait out the economic downturn.

Though Wesley Chapel has been in the development spotlight with the opening of Tampa Premium Outlets, development at Cypress Creek Town Center — the Land O’ Lakes area is starting to share in the action.

“It’s not happening as fast as Wesley Chapel and Bruce B. Downs Boulevard are,” said Jackson. “But, it’s not far behind, probably a year behind.”

Land O’ Lakes Landings is in the planning stages, Jackson said. That center likely will begin construction in 2018.

It will be similar in size to Camp Indianhead at about 13,000 square feet, located on U.S. 41, more than a mile south of State Road 52. The site is next to an approximately 500-home master-planned community from Ryan Homes that will be built on land formerly part of the Lester Dairy farm.

Leases are not in place, but Jackson said he is in discussions with a national chain restaurant.

“We’re waiting on them (Ryan) to get stuff moving,” Jackson said. “We are the first commercial parcel outside of this development’s entrance.”

Another shopping center is in the planning stages, as well, Jackson said. That center, Lake Thomas Crossings, likely will begin construction in 2017.

It is a 16,000 square-foot shopping center on U.S. 41, about three miles north of State Road 54, and south of Ehren Cutoff.

“There is a desperate need for restaurants and retail up there,” Jackson said.

Connerton is another of Pasco’s housing developments that came to a standstill during the recession. But now, new homes are sprouting, and a McDonald’s restaurant is under construction at an entrance into the community.

Jackson said the draw to that area remains 100 percent the development of Connerton.

“If Connerton didn’t happen, we wouldn’t have bought the property,” he said.

Revised on July 8, 2016