The 2018 midterm election cycle was the most exciting, expensive and competitive of any in recent memory; 63 percent of the state’s registrants voted—much higher than the 51 percent in 2014. This year’s midterm election was also full of surprises…and it is still not over. Here are the five biggest “shockers” to date.
No. 1: “It’s not over ’til it’s over.” No one would have been terribly surprised if the margin-of-victory for U.S. Senator or Governor had been around 1 percent. After all, the past four elections have been that way. But no one predicted that these two races, plus the Commissioner of Agriculture and a couple of state legislative races, would be so close (less than 0.5 percent) that recounts are necessary to certify the winners.
No. 2: Another recount controversy puts Florida in the national spotlight — again. No one expected the 2018 recount controversy to reach the fever pitch that had characterized the 2000 presidential election between Republican George W. Bush and Democrat Al Gore when Bush beat Gore in Florida by only 537 votes. That high-profile controversy involved poorly designed ballots (the butterfly ballot in Palm Beach County), punch card ballots (hanging chads) and other counting irregularities. That dispute was ultimately resolved by the U.S. Supreme Court—36 days after Election Day.
But, here we are again with another round of recounts on our hands—another ballot format controversy (Broward County’s placement of the U.S. Senate race under voter instructions) and multiple court cases alleging everything from vote suppression to irregularities involving vote counting, ineligible voters casting ballots, and problems with U.S. Postal Service delivery of mail ballots. There is no way to definitively say how long it will take to resolve these controversies and declare winners.
No. 3: Election Night vote totals are incomplete; they don’t include all votes cast. The 2018 election taught Floridians that Election Night totals may change significantly, as more ballots arrive in county supervisors of elections’ offices. There are: (1) ballots cast by voters choosing to Vote by Mail that arrived on Election Day by the 7 p.m., deadline—but had not yet been opened and checked for the requisite signature on the outside of the envelope and for its match with the voter’s signature on file; (2) provisional ballots cast in person during early voting or at the polls on Election Day whose eligibility status cannot be determined on the spot for a variety of reasons, like not showing up with identification showing a photo and signature; and (3) overseas ballots cast by military, embassy personnel, academics, students, and business people that have an extra 10 days after Election Day to arrive in supervisors’ offices. Larger counties are more likely to have more mail ballots arriving on Election Day, and more provisional and overseas ballots to count, which is why their final vote totals can reverse an Election Night “winner” on occasion.
No. 4: All but one of the 12 proposed amendments passed. Many of the state’s major newspapers urged Floridians to vote “No” on a fair number of the proposed amendments. So, too, did groups that opposed bundling together several proposals into single amendments, and others who thought most of the proposals could better have been handled by the legislature rather than being put into the constitution.
But, Floridians surprised nearly everyone by voting “Yes” on all except Amendment 1. One theory is that most voters did not take time to read the detailed Ballot Summary—or couldn’t make sense of the confusing language—and instead just read the Ballot Title. Most of the ballot titles alone sounded like good ideas—limits on property tax assessments, voter control of gambling, prohibition of off-shore oil drilling, rights of crime victims, first responder and military member survivor benefits, ending dog racing, and so forth. The amendment that got the most support promised to expand current restrictions on lobbying. The one amendment voters rejected (although narrowly) was titled, Increased Homestead Property Tax Exemption. It was fought heavily by local governments who warned voters their local property taxes would have to go up or their services cut to make up for the lost revenue. The Ballot Summary’s language for that amendment was also more confusing than for the other proposed amendments.
No. 5: Across the state, all 19 proposals to allow county governments to raise taxes or sell tax-backed bonds passed. Normally, voters are hesitant to say “Yes” to higher taxes on themselves or to approve county requests to borrow funds for large-scale projects. With so many campaign commercials and mailers, including candidate promises to keep taxes low, many analysts were skeptical that voters would approve very many of the 19 tax and bond proposals on county ballots in 2018.
But, voters approved all 19. Why all these “Yes” votes this year? One explanation is that people are willing to pay more when the economy is strong, unemployment is low and consumer confidence is high. Another is that during periods of high growth, residents want relief from traffic congestion and favor repair and/or expansion of critical infrastructure. Overall, the most requests for more funding were school-related (9 of the 19), followed by infrastructure (4), recreation (3) and transportation (3). Several counties, including Pasco and Hillsborough, asked voters to approve more than one increase. Pasco County requested voter approval to sell four general obligation (tax-backed) bonds to finance two recreational/leisure functions (parks, libraries) and two safety-related infrastructure projects (jails and fire-rescue). In neighboring Hillsborough County, voters said “Yes” to two sales tax increases—one earmarked for schools, another for transportation—even though it made Hillsborough County’s sales tax the highest in the state.
Two Constants
Despite all these surprises, two things stand out about Florida’s 2018 midterm election: Florida remains the most competitive of the 50 states (the “purpliest”) and is by far the most fascinating to watch to the nation at-large. Stay tuned. It’s never over in the Sunshine State until it’s over.
By Dr. Susan A. MacManus
Dr. Susan A. MacManus is a Distinguished University Professor Emerita from the University of South Florida. She is nationally recognized as an expert on Florida politics.
Published November 14, 2018