By B.C. Manion
The recession may be officially over, but it will take quite some time before the recovery begins to be felt locally, a Florida economist said during a recent Business Development Week luncheon at the Tampa Bay Golf & Country Club in San Antonio.
“We are going to sputter along for the next year,” predicted Chris Jones, president of Florida Economic Advisors LLC, and an adjunct professor for the University of South Florida.
“The days of 4 percent unemployment and 2 percent inflation may be behind us for a good long while,” Jones said.
Pasco County’s unemployment rate continues to exceed the national average; the national rate is 9 percent, while Pasco’s stands at 13 percent.
Regionally, 30 percent of the state’s job losses occurred in the Interstate 4 corridor, Jones said.
When it comes to the economy, “we tend to get really myopic and short-sighted,” he said.
“We have to understand the long-term, if we’re going to understand how the business cycle ebbs and flows,” he added.
Recessions are nothing new. The nation has encountered them and emerged from them before, Jones reminded the crowd
“It’s all part of the business cycle. We will come out of it. It’s not a matter of if, it’s a matter of when and how strong,” he said.
In this particular recession, Florida is in worse shape than the nation as a whole, he said.
Besides its high unemployment, the state’s real estate sector also is digging out of a big hole, he said. “Our back is not broken, but it is kind of crushed.”
“We became prosperous because people moved here,” said Jones, an economic development consultant whose experience includes working with public sector and private clients.
“As a state, we’re not as cheap. That used to be one of the driving factors,” Jones said.
The reductions in values caused by the recession are making the market more attractive again for investors, he said.
“We are becoming a more affordable market again — not only from the residential but also from the commercial side, as well,” he said.
The state is fortunate that Amendment 4 didn’t pass, Jones said, referring to a constitutional amendment that would have required voters to approve changes to local comprehensive plans.
That change would have created too much uncertainty for investors and they would have taken their business elsewhere, Jones said.
Competition for investors also has become much more fierce, Jones said.
It’s no longer just an issue of competing with other states and regions — it’s a much broader competition now, Jones said.
“We’re competing with every other economic entity. We’re competing with every other piece of dirt on the planet,” he said.
Jones said the state’s job growth has always been tied to tourism and real estate.
He expects to see tourism rebound before real estate.
When it comes to housing starts, he said, “that’s a big climb from a real steep drop.”
The state does have a few things working in its favor. For one thing, “Gov. (Rick) Scott is seen as pro-growth,” he said.
For another, the state could benefit significantly from a proposed light rail project between Tampa and Orlando.
The federal government has agreed to pay for the lion’s share of the project, but Scott has not yet decided whether the state will pursue the project.
Tampa attorney Ron Weaver asked Jones what argument could be used to persuade the governor to accept the federal funds and proceed with light rail.
“I don’t think he’s got anything better up his sleeve for a job generator,” Jones said.
“Light rail is really important,” Jones said. “The bottom line is that this project (light rail) will create jobs and it will create interest in that corridor.”
Jones said he’s not aware of anything else that will generate as many jobs in as short of time.
2011 economic projections
R. Christopher Jones made these predictions for the national economy in 2011:
— Gross Domestic Product will grow by 3 percent.
— Unemployment will decrease, but will remain around 9 percent
— The stock markets will grow by 6 percent to 8 percent
— Inflationary pressures will be felt in the second half of 2011
