Governor and Cabinet
Gov. Ron DeSantis beat Democrat Charlie Crist by nearly 20 points. The last Republican candidate to win a gubernatorial race by that much was Jeb Bush in 2002. The race was tight in 2018: DeSantis beat Democrat Andrew Gillum by just 0.4%, necessitating a recount.
For the first time since Reconstruction, Republicans now control all statewide elective executive positions — the governor and the Cabinet (attorney general, chief financial officer, and commissioner of agriculture and consumer services). The governor’s coattails were long: All of the Cabinet members won by double-digit margins.
U.S. Congress
Republican Marco Rubio beat Democrat Val Demings by almost 17 points, becoming the first Republican U.S. Senator from Florida to serve three terms.
Florida Republicans won 20 seats in the U.S. House, and Democrats won eight. Before redistricting and the addition of a seat due to the state’s population growth, the delegation was 16 Republicans and 11 Democrats. The Republican’s four-seat pickup helped Republicans to flip control of the U.S. House from Democrat to Republican. (The new map currently is being challenged in federal and state court.)
State Legislature
Republicans gained four seats in the Florida Senate and seven seats in the House. The Senate now has 28 Republicans and 12 Democrats; the House has 85 Republicans and 35 Democrats.
Republicans now have a supermajority in each chamber making it easier to control debate and dictate procedural rules. A supermajority is two-thirds of the members in each chamber (27 in Senate; 80 in House). The last time Republicans had a supermajority in both houses was during the 2010-2012 session.
Local School Board Races
For the first time in Florida’s political history, nonpartisan school board races in many counties became political. Controversial school policies related to curriculum (critical race theory; sexual and gender identity), parental rights, and health issues turned parents into activists. Moms For Liberty groups (founded by a Florida mom) supported DeSantis’ call for “Education, not indoctrination.”
In a first, gubernatorial hopefuls made endorsements in some of those races. Of the 30 candidates endorsed by DeSantis, 25 won election. Of Crist’s seven endorsements, three won. (Tyler Kingkade, NBC News).
How did Florida Republicans win so handily?
It all began with an aggressive registration plan adopted by the party after the 2018 election. Nonstop knocking on doors (2 million) focused on registering new voters and persuading current registrants to switch parties.
In November 2020, there were 134,242 more registered Democrats than Republicans. But by Nov. 20, 2022, Republicans outnumbered Democrats by 305,590. Between Aug. 23 (the primary) and Oct. 11 (book closing), Republicans registered nine new voters for every one Democrat. (Man, Sun Sentinel).
During the Pandemic, 393,800 new voters moved to Florida (3% of all current registrants) — 46% Republicans, 23% Democrats, and 29% independents (Renfro, Florida Politics.com). Many came here to escape mandatory mask and vaccine rules, lockdowns, and distance learning for schoolchildren.
More than 555,000 Floridians (4% of registrants) changed their party affiliation between January 2021 and Sept. 30, 2022. More of those who switched left the Democratic Party (42%) than the Republican Party (24%). Among those who were No Party Affiliation (NPA) registrants but became affiliated with a party, 62% became Republicans, but only 38% switched to the Democrats. (MacManus, sayfiereview.com).
More Floridians than ever (27%) turned their backs on both major parties and registered as NPAs. Millennials and Gen Zers (40%) were the most likely to do so compared to 17% of Florida’s two oldest generations. NPAs are viewed as the state’s “swing voters.” In 2022, more NPAs (52%) voted for Republican than Democrat candidates (NBC exit poll).
Winning rural, suburban and urban counties
DeSantis won the rural (70%) and suburban vote (58%), both typically Republican, and the urban vote (56%). Large urban counties that had voted Democrat in 2018 turned red in 2022: Duval (55%), Hillsborough (64%), Palm Beach (52%), Miami-Dade (55%) and Pinellas (55%). Turnout was low in these urban areas among young and Black voters — key Democratic constituency bases, plus the Latino vote shifted significantly to Republicans.
Crist won only five counties (Alachua, Broward, Gadsden, Leon and Orange) — far fewer than the 13 counties won by Andrew Gillum, the Democratic candidate for governor in 2018.
For the first time in 20 years, Republicans won Miami-Dade County — the state’s largest with a majority (70%) Hispanic population. The result drew national attention.
Getting Out the Vote (GOTV)
Turnout actually went down from 63% in 2018 (the previous midterm) to 54% in 2022. The falloff rates were higher among Democrats particularly in heavily populated metropolitan areas. Democratic turnout problems were first evident in the August primary when the party’s turnout rate was 31% compared to Republicans’ 33%, in spite of Democrats having a competitive gubernatorial primary while Republicans did not. The lagging turnout among young (11%), Latino (16%) and Black (27%) Democrats was a sign of what was to come in November.
Getting a potential supporter to actually vote depends on four M’s: the right Message and messenger, the right Means of communication, Microtargeting to key demographic groups, and sufficient Money. Florida Republicans were better at each.
Marketing research in 2022 advised that a message be clear, delivered by ordinary people, and frequently changed. The DeSantis TV commercials were far more effective than the Crist and Demings ads. According to AdImpact, Crist and Demings ads continued to focus on abortion (airing 28,000 times), even when polls showed that Floridians’ priority was economic, especially inflation. Their ads also featured the candidates themselves and ran for long periods. By contrast, DeSantis’ ads featured everyday Floridians, with a different theme every week or so. The most impactful ad for DeSantis featured his wife Casey describing how he cared for her during her fight against breast cancer.
Democrats failed to mobilize two key voting blocs — the young and voters of color. The party relied more on broadcast television and mailers than on different social media platforms and influencer networks. They trailed the DeSantis campaign in micro targeting Latinos via social media and radio, and failed to generate enthusiasm among Black voters, particularly younger ones.
It’s Back to the Drawing Board for Florida Democrats
In 2022, Democrats got the worst drubbing in more than 100 years. Party officials blamed national Democratic groups for drastically reducing contributions to help local parties engage in aggressive year-round registration efforts. National Democratic donor groups sent Florida Democrats just $1.8 million in 2022, down from $55 million in 2018.
They also pointed fingers at over reliance on political consultants from outside Florida, failed efforts at recruiting strong candidates, and poor messaging especially to younger and Latino voters.
In a tweet, Kevin Cate, a political consultant for Democrats, wasted no words: “At the rate Florida is going, an NPA candidate for governor may have a better shot than a Democrat in 2026. It’s that bad. Complete collapse. We either reset or go extinct.”
David J. Bonanza and Anthony A. Cilluffo contributed to this report
Published November 23, 2022
