Many Floridians will be relieved to see Election 2018 come to an end–no more negative TV ads, no more flashy mailers, and no more robocalls or texts begging us to vote. But, after the polls close, many of us will want to know the answers to these five intriguing questions:
Were the polls right in Florida? They were not in predicting the outcome of the 2016 presidential contest between Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Donald Trump. Nor did they predict that Andrew Gillum would capture the Democratic nomination for governor in the August 2018 primary. A lesson learned from these earlier miscues is that poll results should not deter you from voting because they cannot predict turnout or capture last-minute surges of support.
Were this year’s races for the U.S. Senate and Governor as close as previous races? The margin-of-victory for the winner of the last four major elections (the 2010 and 2014 gubernatorial races and the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections) has been 1 percent. But, will it be as close this year considering the state’s changing demographic makeup, particularly an increase in younger voters and Hispanics? These two groups lean more Democratic in their voting patterns, but traditionally have lower turnout rates in midterm elections.
Did Florida voters vote a straight party line for the five statewide races (U.S. Senator, Governor, Attorney General, Chief Financial Officer, Commissioner of Agriculture and Consumer Services) or split their votes between Democrats and Republicans? Of greatest interest is whether the winners in the contests for the U.S. Senate and Governor will be from different political parties. Heading into this election, Democrats hold the U.S. Senate seat and Republicans the Governor’s Mansion. Some who believe there will be a big blue wave (Democrats winning a lot more offices) predict a majority of Florida voters will vote a straight party line. Others believe that a party split is more likely due to the growing number of Floridians registered as No Party Affiliation (NPA) who tend to vote for the candidate rather than the party.
Did the turnout rate go up, especially among younger voters? The turnout rate in the 2014 midterm general election was 51 percent. Many are projecting it may be higher this year based on an uptick in turnout in the August primary (18 percent to 27 percent) and surveys showing greater voter interest this year, particularly in the governor’s race. The two gubernatorial candidates (Democrat Andrew Gillum and Republican Ron DeSantis) sharply differ in their ideologies and policy preferences. The state’s changing age demographics have led some analysts to project that younger voters may determine the winner. The three youngest generations (Generation X, the Millennials, and Generation Z) now make up 52 percent of the state’s registered voters. Traditionally, however, the turnout rate of younger voters lags far behind that of older voters, especially in midterm elections.
How many of the 12 amendments passed? This is one of the longest ballots Floridians will have to wade through in many years, and these 12 amendments come at the end of the ballot. For an amendment to be adopted, 60 percent of those voting on it must vote “Yes.” Many of this year’s proposed amendments are confusing. Some have three or four parts (bundled amendments placed on the ballot by the Constitutional Revision Commission). Voters have been bombarded with TV ads and mailers, often presenting conflicting messages about the content and impact of an amendment, especially Amendment 3 (gambling). The big question is, how many voters will vote “No” on those that are confusing or seem like they should not be in the constitution (vaping)? Also, how many voters will simply skip them—an action known as “roll-off”?
The bottom line is this: This year’s midterm election is one of the most interesting in years not only to Floridians but to the nation.
By Susan A. MacManus
Dr. Susan A. MacManus is a Distinguished University Professor Emerita from the University of South Florida. She lives in Land O’ Lakes and is recognized nationally for her knowledge of Florida politics.
Published October 31, 2018
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