NEW PORT RICHEY – Pasco County is approaching budget season conservatively as staff projects modest revenue gains while dealing with must-pay expenses that put increased pressure on the general fund, according to Budget Director Amielee Farrell.
She led a discussion March 25 with county commissioners on revenue projections for the 2026 fiscal year.
“We’re looking at a limited ability to increase or expand services going into the next fiscal year,” Farrell told them. “We’re going to be running a very lean budget.”
Ferell reviewed data and metrics that help the county predict taxable assessed values, such as new home permits and new construction.
“What we’re kind of keeping an eye on right now is fourth quarter fiscal year 2024 and first quarter fiscal year 2025, where we’re seeing a slight drop,” Farrell said of new home permits. “We’re not sure yet if this is attributed to all of the hurricane-type stuff that’s been happening in this county, so we’re keeping an eye because that could potentially impact us about two years out.”
Not only are new home permits leveling off but staff believes commercial plus residential new construction will start leveling off as well. A slide showing the ebbs and flows of assessed values over the past 25 years noted that the county can’t expect assessed values to remain at this level.
Farrell also points to revaluations over the past three fiscal years experiencing double digit growth, driven in part by a Northern migration. She believes the market conditions are starting to correct themselves and that the growth won’t be as high with the next budget cycle.
Her office has been running financial models at 5%, 7% and 9% growth to help prepare for the release of preliminary assessed values in June.
She also shared key expense drivers for the coming year, including the operational costs associated with the detention center expansion, constitutional budget increases, personnel increases related to workers comp and retirement, general inflation and government growth to keep pace with the demands for service.
In the coming months, county staff will meet with commissioners for one-on-on briefings and hold board meetings to discuss departmental budgets.
Commissioner Jack Mariano told Farrell that he’d like to focus during one-on-one meetings on the costs associated with the detention center as well as how the county is coming along on road paving projects.
The county will receive preliminary and final taxable assessed values in June and July. The board will adopt tentative millage rates and a budget in July. After a pair of public hearings, commissioners will adopt final millage rates and a budget in September.
