(The Center Square) — Despite no longer being a battleground state, a new report projects spending in Florida will top $464 million for this year’s campaign, one of the largest increases over previous predictions.
According to the latest Political Projections Report by AdImpact, Florida has one of the largest projected increases in political spending, almost $69 million. But unlike Maryland, Montana and Ohio, Florida is not considered a state in contention.
The report notes that the increase in the Sunshine State is due to abortion and marijuana initiatives appearing on the ballot on Nov. 5. Florida was fourth behind Maryland with an almost $100 million increase in predicting spending. Montana’s projection has increased by $85 million, and Ohio has increased by $78 million.
Since September 2023, the report points out there have been significant shifts in the political spending landscape, which resulted in substantial updates to state-level spending projections.
California is projected to spend over $1.1 billion on political campaigns, outpacing all other states by a large margin. Arizona is predicted to spend $803 million, followed closely by Pennsylvania with $800 million.
According to the report, the presidential primary was “one of the most significant unknowns,” largely due to the large number of Republican candidates including Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis. It was anticipated that spending would carry through until a nominee was announced. However, the primary was less competitive and less expensive than was initially anticipated.
By March 12, when former President Trump became the presumptive nominee, Republicans had only spent $300 million. In total, just over $500 million was spent on political advertisements targeting the presidential primary date.
In Florida, $103 million was spent on the presidential primary, ranking 10th out of all 50 states. The largest spending came from battleground states, like Pennsylvania, with $360 million in spending during the presidential primary, tops nationally. Arizona came in second with $299 million, while Georgia came in third with $244 million.
The report notes swing states are most likely to decide the 2024 election. It is expected there will be a 17% increase in spending over the 2020 election, with $2.1 billion projected to be spent.
Published July 24, 2024
