The signs of Pasco County’s explosive growth are everywhere.
New residential communities and apartment complexes are springing up. Hospitals and schools are opening. Shopping and restaurant choices are increasing. Large companies are moving in, and small businesses are setting up shop.
The trend is expected to continue.
By 2050, Pasco is projected to have 1,018,000 residents and the county’s workforce is expected to more than double — increasing to 424,000.
Those are the figures shared at a Feb. 8 Pasco County Metropolitan Planning Organization (MPO) meeting by William Roll, who is a transportation planning expert for Kimley-Horn.
Kimley-Horn is the consultant hired by the Pasco MPO to prepare a socioeconomic forecast for the county’s Innovate Pasco 2050, the county’s long-range transportation plan that will guide future projects to address all types of transportation needs.
The Pasco MPO board, made up of elected leaders from Pasco County, Dade City, Zephyrhills, New Port Richey and Port Richey, is responsible for addressing transportation needs and setting priorities across Pasco.
Innovate Pasco 2050 will consider all modes of transportation — which include motorized vehicles, public transportation, bicycles, walking, freight and goods movement, and air travel.
Forecasting the county’s expected population and job growth are key elements in the planning process.
Roll said he’s confident the county’s population growth will reach expectations.
“If we’re a little overly optimistic we don’t have a 2050 plan — we have a 2053 plan, and that’s OK,” Roll said. “The same improvements need to be made. The same type of development is going to take place.”
But he added: “If we underestimate them, now we’re shooting low and that can be a real problem.”
Roll also noted that the figures will be updated in five years, when the county does its 2055 plan.
The consultant told the MPO board that Pasco is expected to have a “pretty dramatic change” in terms of its employment figures.
In 2019, the county had a workforce of about 187,000; in 2050 it is projected to have 424,000, Roll said.
“If you drove any distance through the county, you could see why. This county has changed over the course of the last 10 to 15 years,” Roll said. “I have watched over the years that you have developed a threshold that you can support other employment activities.
“When we were doing this 20 years ago, we didn’t have a Wiregrass (Wiregrass Ranch and the surrounding development). We didn’t have that type of economic item. We didn’t have some of the facilities and resources that you now have.
“Now you have those things and that growth is going to continue to happen,” Roll said.
Much of the change can be attributed to a fundamental shift in the county’s demographics, he said. Pasco is trending much younger now than it was in the past.
Roll told officials to expect to see a bit more growth on the industrial side of development, than on commercial.
“That’s following just the general trend — more of us are ordering stuff online, as opposed to going to a brick-and-mortar store,” Roll explained.
However, he added, Pasco will have disproportionate commercial employment growth than other counties because it is adding activities it traditionally lacked.
“You can buy in Pasco County now, and not have to travel to another county,” the consultant said.
The most dramatic employment increase will come in the service sector, Roll said. That includes finance, insurance, real estate, professional services, education, medical and government workers.
It doesn’t take much investigation to find evidence of the creation of new jobs, which are available now and are on the horizon.
Construction crews continue kicking up dirt, chambers of commerce continue to host ribbon-cuttings and the county board keeps celebrating announcements of big companies moving to Pasco.
The Pasco MPO approved the figures provided by Roll to be incorporated into its long-range transportation plan.
There are many other steps that are necessary before the long-range transportation plan is adopted and begins to guide future projects aimed at improving safety and the movement of people and goods through Pasco County.
Published February 21, 2024
