Pasco County is expected to add a total of 1,673 students in public and charter schools next year, based on projections compiled by Pasco County Schools.
That’s an increase over last year’s growth, which was 1,517, and brings the figure to nearly 3,200 in two years.
The bulk of the growth is coming in the State Road 54/State Road 56 corridor, said Chris Williams, director of planning for Pasco County Schools.
The growth is coming, he said, from “all those new developments springing up along the 54 corridor — Wiregrass. Bexley Ranch. Starkey Ranch.”
“Everything between Trinity and Wesley Chapel, along the 54 corridor,” Williams said.
There’s development in the Sunlake area, and Connerton is building again, too, Williams said.
The school district planner broke down the enrollment growth by grade levels.
“This year, we grew by a little bit under 500 elementary kids. Next year, we’re projecting 555 in the elementary, which is about 73 percent of an elementary school,” Williams said.
“We’re projecting 346 (additional students) for middle, and 709 (more) for high school,” he said.
The district picks up a sizable number of private school and charter school kids at the high school level, Williams noted.
“We have to be cognizant of that when we’re doing our projections. We can’t just take our eighth-grade population and assume that’s what our ninth-grade population is going to be,” he said. The district has to add to that.
This will be the third year in a row that the district has experienced enrollment growth, Williams said.
Growth projected for next year is substantially less than in 2004-2005, when enrollment grew by almost 3,200, he said
But, the expected growth is significantly more than in 2008-2009, when enrollment grew by 280; 2009-2010, when it grew by 327; 2010-2011, when it declined by 252 and, 2011-2012, when it dropped by130.
The district’s projection for this year was for 69,475, but it expects to come in higher — at 69,633, Williams said.
Its projection for next year is 71,306.
The district tries to be cautious in its projections, Williams said.
“We don’t want to overbuild,” he said. On the other hand, “We also don’t want to fall way behind, either.
“We’re trying to be smart about where we’re putting schools,” he said.
“We built W because it was centrally located and allowed us to relieve Double Branch, Seven Oaks, that area,” he said.
With all of the construction activity, there’s no doubt additional schools will be needed, Williams said. The question is how many?
“Everybody is restarting, and they’re all going at once. The question is how sustainable is that? Are they competing for the same customers, or is there enough demand to buy all that they’re going to build? And, I don’t know the answer to that,” Williams said.
Published January 13, 2016